As you may have seen in the news, peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down last weekend after 21 hours of negotiations in Pakistan. The two sides agreed to a two-week ceasefire earlier this month, which briefly sent stocks higher and oil prices lower, but without a deal in place, that uncertainty is back. The core issue for markets is the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply, which Iran has effectively kept closed sin

Over the past several weeks, markets have reminded us, quickly and uncomfortably, that investing does not move in straight lines. The S&P 500 has entered a technical correction, declining more than 10 percent from recent highs. While never pleasant, this type of move is both normal and necessary when investing in risk assets. Viewed in context, the recent pullback looks far less extraordinary: 2023: +24.23% 2024: +23.31% 2025: +16.39% 2026 year to date: -5.38% After a three-y

Markets have been choppy lately — and if you've been paying attention, you know why. Oil prices have climbed back above $100 a barrel, which tends to slow economic growth and nudge inflation higher. Add in ongoing questions about Federal Reserve interest rate policy and whether stock valuations have gotten ahead of themselves, and it's easy to see why investors are checking their portfolios a little more often than usual. But here's the thing: a well-built portfolio isn't sup

Why oil has climbed to $100 In a matter of days, oil went from a quiet $70 a barrel to knocking on the door of $100. The escalating conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz lit the fuse, and now Brent crude and WTI are at levels we haven't seen since Russia marched into Ukraine in 2022. Predictably, the word "stagflation" is making the rounds again, and the phrase "global economic downturn" is showing up in a lot of headlines. Before we go any furthe

Good news, mixed signals, and one thing worth watching. That's the economy in a sentence right now. Growth is surprising to the upside, inflation is headed in the right direction, and unemployment is low by any reasonable measure. But the job market has some nuance beneath the surface that's worth understanding before you decide how you feel about all of it. The job market is at a turning point One useful way to read the job market is to compare how many people are looking fo