Markets, Oil, and the New Iran Framework

The U.S. and Iran have signed an early-stage agreement aimed at ending the four-month conflict that has weighed on the global economy. Markets responded well: stocks moved higher and oil prices dropped on the news. What does this mean for everyday investors?

The agreement, a memorandum of understanding, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a critical  waterway for oil and gas shipping. Both sides now have 60 days to negotiate a final deal. The  news is encouraging, but key questions remain open, including Iran's nuclear program and  the pace of sanctions relief. Worth remembering: ceasefires and negotiations during this  conflict have broken down before, and markets have whipsawed with each twist. This is a  step forward, not a finish line.

Oil prices and inflation: possible relief at the pump

Energy prices are the main way conflicts like this one ripple through the broader economy.  The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced major oil producers to cut back output. Oil  prices had already started falling before the deal was announced, and have now dropped  more than 35% from their April peak near $118 per barrel to the high $70s. History shows  that oil price spikes tied to conflict tend to be temporary. Once the disruption eases, prices  usually drift back toward levels set by everyday supply and demand.

At the gas pump, regular unleaded climbed above $4.50 per gallon at its highest point in late  May before pulling back toward $4.00. Overall consumer prices, measured by the Consumer  Price Index (CPI), rose 4.2% in May compared to a year earlier, largely due to the energy  spike. Strip out food and energy, though, and prices rose just 2.9%, which tells us higher oil  costs have not spread widely through the rest of the economy. If oil prices keep falling,  inflation should follow.

Markets have posted healthy gains across asset classes this year

Despite the uncertainty, many parts of the investment market have held up well in 2026. The broad U.S. stock market is up about 10% for the year, supported by solid company earnings  and a healthy economy. Bonds have helped cushion portfolios during bumpy periods, and  international stocks have continued to perform well. Energy has been a standout for much of the year, with sector gains in the high-20% range as elevated oil prices boosted producer  profits, though that lead has started to narrow as oil retreats from its highs. Most major stock  market sectors have been positive this year, which shows how a well-spread portfolio can  benefit from different areas performing well at different times.

This highlights a core investing principle: spreading investments across different parts of the  market, known as diversification, helps manage risk. Since it is very difficult to predict  geopolitics or interest rate moves, owning a variety of investments can help protect and grow  a portfolio over time.

A long-term view helps investors stay on track through geopolitical events

Over the past century, markets have faced wars, oil crises, and regional conflicts of all kinds.  In most cases, markets recovered and moved higher over time, even when the underlying  situations took years to fully resolve. The chart above makes this point well: long-term market  performance has been driven by economic and business cycles, not by any single world  event.

The preliminary peace agreement is genuinely good news. Lower energy prices can ease the  cost of living for households and reduce costs for businesses. But a well-built portfolio never  depends on any one event going a certain way. Staying invested and keeping focus on your  long-term goals remains the most reliable approach.

The bottom line? A preliminary U.S.-Iran peace agreement has lifted markets and pushed oil  prices lower. For investors, history shows that the best way to navigate geopolitical events is  to focus on long-term trends and financial goals.

References

1. Clearnomics research, CME Group data as of June 12, 2026

2. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

3. Asset classes included are MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EM), MSCI Developed Markets Index (EAFE), MSCI World Small Cap Index (Small Cap), S&P 500, balanced portfolio, fixed income, and MSCI World Commodity Producers Index (Commod.). The balanced portfolio is  a historical 60/40 portfolio consisting of 40% U.S. large cap, 5% small cap, 10% international  developed equities, 5% emerging market equities, 35% U.S. bonds, and 5% commodities.

4. Clearnomics research, Standard & Poor’s data through June 12, 2026

5. Clearnomics research, Bloomberg index data through June 12, 2026

6. Clearnomics research, MSCI index data through June 12, 2026

Index Descriptions

S&P 500

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed  to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate  market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance  prior to 1957 incorporates the performance of the predecessor index, the S&P 90.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization  weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging  market countries of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The MSCI EM  Index consists of the following emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa,  Turkey, United Arab Emirates, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan,  and Thailand.

MSCI EAFE Index

The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to  measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada.  The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed country indices: Australia, Austria,  Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the  Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and  the UK.

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed- rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein  has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and  its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is  made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and  opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to  change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated  websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment  objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be  construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial  instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company  fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as  a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company's stock. Predictions, forecasts, and  estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell,  or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds,  or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in  this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property.  All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property  rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all  rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block  the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic  tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised.  Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent  allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.