The Bull Market Turns Five. Are You Still Balanced?
When the market has been this good for this long, it’s easy to say “things are hot, time to move some money into bonds.” It’s just as easy to go the other way and pile in because it feels like stocks can’t lose. Both reactions feel smart in the moment. Neither one is a plan. The point right now is not to celebrate or get comfortable. It’s to stay focused on what your money is actually for.
Four years ago this month, the U.S. stock market hit the bottom of a painful downturn. Inflation was running at its fastest pace since the 1970s, interest rates were climbing quickly, and a lot of people were bracing for a recession. If you were nervous then, you had plenty of company.
Today looks very different. Stocks are near all-time highs, the economy has held up, and corporate profits have grown. Inflation is still worth watching, and energy prices have added some uncertainty this year, but it’s nowhere near where it was in 2022.¹ The S&P 500, the most widely followed measure of U.S. stocks, has more than doubled since that low.
As this bull market (a long stretch of rising stock prices) heads into its fifth year, it’s a good reminder that markets tend to turn when people least expect it. That works in both directions.
Putting the current bull market in historical context
The S&P 500 bottomed on October 12, 2022. Since then it’s up about 119% on price alone, and about 131% with dividends reinvested.² As the chart above shows, that puts this run among the strongest bull markets since World War II. And history is on its side. Bull markets have tended to last far longer than downturns, often five to ten years or more.
That doesn’t mean it’s been a smooth ride. This cycle has already taken some real punches, including sharp drops in 2025 over tariffs and again earlier this year with the war in Iran. Each time, the headlines made it feel like this might be the one that ends it. It wasn’t. If you felt the urge to sell during either of those stretches, you’re normal. The people who stuck to their plan are the ones who got to enjoy what came next.
The long bull markets of the 1990s and 2010s had their own scary moments too. In both cases, businesses and consumers adjusted, and the market kept climbing.
Reaching new record highs is a normal part of bull markets
This year alone, the S&P 500 has hit more than two dozen new all-time highs.³ That tends to put people in one of two camps. One group thinks, “It’s this high, a drop has to be coming.” The other thinks, “Everyone’s making money but me.” Both are really the same feeling: worry about getting the timing wrong.
Here’s the thing. New highs are a normal part of a bull market, not a warning sign. Over the past decade, the S&P 500 has set new records almost every year. The only exceptions were the 2022 downturn and the early recovery in 2023. If you stepped aside every time the market hit a high, you’d have spent most of the last ten years on the sidelines.
Staying invested when it feels uncomfortable is one of the most valuable habits a long-term investor can build.
Stock prices look high by some measures, making balance important
At this stage of a bull market, it’s fair to ask: are stocks expensive? That’s what valuation measures, comparing what investors pay for a company to what it actually earns and owns.
There’s some good news here. Earnings have grown strongly over the past year, with estimates pointing to more than 30% growth for 2026. That’s helped bring the price-to- earnings ratio, one of the most common valuation measures, down from its recent peak.⁴ In plain terms, much of this rally has been driven by real profits, not just excitement.
That said, other measures still sit above their longrun averages, especially in technology. If a big share of your portfolio is in tech stocks or your own company’s stock, this is worth a closer look.
Meanwhile, bond yields are near multi-decade highs, which makes bonds (loans to governments or companies that pay regular interest) more attractive than they’ve been in a long time.⁵ That’s where the opening point comes back around. Adding bonds isn’t about calling a top. It’s about making sure your portfolio is built to handle whatever comes next, not just what’s happening now.
The bottom line? Four years ago, few people would have guessed we’d be where we are today. That’s worth remembering, because the next four years are just as hard to predict. Over time, the investors who do well usually have one thing in common: a plan they can stick with whether the market is up, down, or flat.
If it’s been a while since you checked how your portfolio is balanced, now is a good time.
References
2. Clearnomics research using Standard & Poor's data, from October 12, 2022 to October 9, 2026
3. Clearnomics research and S&P 500 data, as of October 9, 2026
4. Clearnomics research and LSEG data, as of October 9, 2026
Index Descriptions
S&P 500
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance prior to 1957 incorporates the performance of the predecessor index, the S&P 90.
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